Gasoline Weekly Review(March 21, 2025)

International crude oil futures prices (pc) 

Overview of the gasoline market

In this cycle (20250314-20250320), the main wholesale price of gasoline continued to decline, of which the prices of 92# and 95# gasoline in various regions of China were reduced, concentrated in 10-400 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of local refining declined as a whole, and the range was concentrated in 5-225 yuan/ton. The main factors influencing the rise in international oil prices this week are: the United States has taken military action against the Houthis in Yemen and insisted on sanctions against Iran and Russia, and the potential supply risk has increased. In terms of the domestic gasoline market, this week's cost side support is acceptable, but the refined oil price adjustment is lowered, and the gasoline price is reduced by 280 yuan/ton. In the middle and late of the month, the pressure on refineries was different, the sales policy was flexibly adjusted, so the pressure on manufacturers' shipments still existed.

Gasoline price index

According to TDD, as of March 20, the domestic 92# gasoline price index was 8253.96, down 145.34 from March 13, a decrease of 1.73%; The 95# gasoline price index was 8509.48, down 146.01, or 1.69%. The 92# and 95# gasoline indices were both lowered, and the price difference between the 92# gasoline and 95# gasoline indices was 255.52.

Forecast for the future market

From the perspective of international crude oil, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation and the pressure on the demand side may be suspended, or there may be some support. On the demand side, there is a lack of favorable stimulus, there are few large orders for terminal trade procurement, and there is no holiday support next week, and residents' private car travel will limited, so as the support. There is a certain pressure on the main and local refineries, and the total inventory of gasoline social samples this week is 1.7357 million tons, and the possibility of price reduction and promotion is not ruled out. On the whole, it is expected that there will still be downside risks to domestic gasoline prices in the short term.

Operating rate

In this cycle (20250314-20250320), the operating rate of the main units was 77.59%, down 0.9% from last week, and the operating rate of independent refineries was 59.75%, up 0.53%.