Natural Rubber Main Regions(May 19, 2025)
1. Thailand production area
At present, the harvesting process in Thailand production area is in line with seasonal laws. The output of new rubber is small at the beginning of harvesting. Coupled with the frequent rain disturbances recently, the price of raw materials continues to rise. The supply volume is lower than expected. The raw materials of large Thai factories are around 25-35 days, and at most 40-60 days.
The raw material inventory reserves of factories vary, maintaining normal production and long-term delivery. From the perspective of finished product profits, the theoretical production profit of Thailand STR20 has improved slightly, but it is still in a loss-making state.
The price of raw material cup rubber has continued to rebound recently, and the cost pressure of factories is still there. After the overseas tariff policy was eased, the domestic and foreign market prices rose more than expected, and the factory quotations followed the rise. The theoretical production profit of STR20 has improved slightly, and the shipping sentiment has improved.
2. Vietnam production area
Recently, there has been more precipitation in Vietnam's production area, which has had a certain impact on rubber tapping.
The current tapping rate is roughly around 40%-50%, and the short-term raw material price remains high. However, overall, the output of fresh rubber has gradually returned to normal, and Vietnam's rubber processing plants have basically resumed normal rubber collection, production and shipment.
In view of the relatively poor latex orders and the inverted export profits, the production enthusiasm of the processing plants is relatively low, and the rubber is preferentially fed into the 3L production line.
At present, the output of finished products is generally not much, and it is mainly supplied to the local and overseas markets such as Europe and the United States. Next, Vietnam's production areas will gradually enter the production increase period, and the overall tapping area will continue to expand and increase, but we must also continue to pay attention to the impact of rainfall and other weather.
3. Yunnan production area
Recently, there have been many rainy days in Yunnan's production area, the rubber farmers' tapping rate is insufficient, the raw material output is limited, the short-term raw material supply is still tight, and the phenomenon of raw material snatching in various areas still exists.
The purchase price of the processing plant remains high, further supporting the high level of raw material delivery. In general, the harvesting time this year was earlier, the raw materials were consumed in advance, and the concentrated supply was delayed compared with the same period. Combined with the recent rainy weather, the glue production was released slowly, and the overall supply of raw materials was tight.
The inventory of processing plants has been exhausted, and most factories are using it now. With the overseas production areas gradually starting to harvest, the import of raw materials from Laos has increased, alleviating the tight supply of dry rubber raw materials. The current processing plant operation level is uneven, and the overall operation load is about 60-70%.
4. Hainan production area
Recently, the Hainan production area has been significantly disturbed by rainfall, and the development and promotion of rubber tapping have been hindered.
The speed of new rubber is slow. It is reported that the daily rubber collection volume of the whole island has decreased and is lower than the level of the same period last year. At the same time, boosted by the rise in futures and spot markets, the local thick milk processing plants are eager to grab glue, which in turn drives up the purchase price of glue during the week.
At present, the production cost of Hainan processing plants has increased, but there is a lack of actual positive improvement in downstream demand. It is difficult to trade at high prices in the market, which squeezes the profit space of processing plants and, to a certain extent, hits the enthusiasm of processing plants to collect rubber and produce.
In the short term, the raw material circulation in Hainan production area cannot meet the production needs of various processing plants, and it is expected that the raw material price may remain high.
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